Replication Data for: Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand (ICPSR doi:10.15454/9DZLRA)

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Part 2: Study Description
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

Identification Number:

doi:10.15454/9DZLRA

Distributor:

Portail Data INRAE

Date of Distribution:

2018-04-05

Version:

2

Bibliographic Citation:

Gouel, Christophe; Guimbard, Houssein, 2018, "Replication Data for: Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand", https://doi.org/10.15454/9DZLRA, Portail Data INRAE, V2

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

Identification Number:

doi:10.15454/9DZLRA

Authoring Entity:

Gouel, Christophe (INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Guimbard, Houssein (CEPII)

Distributor:

Portail Data INRAE

Access Authority:

Gouel, Christophe

Depositor:

Gouel, Christophe

Date of Deposit:

2018-03-26

Study Scope

Keywords:

Economics, Human Nutrition and food security

Abstract:

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (1) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties: depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74 to 114% and from 20 to 42%, respectively.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Special Permissions:

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

Restrictions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.

Disclaimer:

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

Notes:

MIT License - Copyright (c) 2018 Christophe Gouel and Houssein Guimbard

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Identification Number:

10.1093/ajae/aay030

Bibliographic Citation:

Christophe Gouel and Houssein Guimbard. 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand." American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 101(2), 383-403

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

GlobalFoodDemand-Programs.zip

Text:

Archive that contains the data and programs to replicate the results

Notes:

application/zip

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

MAIDADS_Simulator.xlsm

Text:

Spreadsheet that allows to simulate the MAIDADS for any combinations of parameters, prices, and income

Notes:

application/vnd.ms-excel.sheet.macroEnabled.12